Food Situation - Grim

India heading for severe rice crisis

Santanu Banerjee | New Delhi

Kharif projection paints scary scenario for foodgrains, including pulses

The first advanced estimate on kharif crops, released on Tuesday, has projected a grim scenario with the data showing huge gaps between target and production estimation in almost all food grains due to the failed monsoon.

The shortfall in rice production is particularly alarming — 69.45 million tonnes (MT) as compared to 84.58 MT last year.

With the prices of food grains already going through the roof, the advance estimate is seen as an omen of worse times. The production shortage has compelled the Government to go for exporting? food grains, though it may not materially change the situation on the price front due to the unbridgeable gap between supply and demand.

For example, the Agriculture Ministry has proposed to import 1 MT rice from Thailand and Philippines, though the advance estimate shows a shortfall of 17 MT this kharif season from the set target of 86 MT. This is also 15 MT less than last year’s 84.58 MT.

The proposal to import the rice at the rate of either $450 to $550 per tonne is expected to be passed by the Empowered Group of Ministers’ (EGoM) meeting soon.

The shortfall figure for pulses like tur, gram and urad are not available; however, the moong production has also nosedived. The advanced estimate puts it at 0.52 MT as compared to last year’s fourth advanced estimate of 0.77 MT. In total, kharif pulses lost over 2 MT, with an estimated production projection of 4.42 MT against the target of 6.50 MT and last year’s production of 4.78 MT.

The first advanced estimate comes with bad news on sugarcane and sugar fronts too. The sugarcane production fell by almost 900 MT, which foretells more import and rise in prices in the open market. Against the target of 3,400 MT, the projected output would be 2,494.82 MT. It happens to be 245 MT less than last year’s production.

While these remained significant misses in targets of major kharif food grains, almost all agriculture produce — barring cotton — also suffered massive setbacks due to the Indian agriculture’s overdependence on rain-fed farming.

MISSING TARGETS

Rice

Actual projection now: 69.45 MT
Target set was: 86.00 MT

Pulses

Actual projection now: 4.42 MT
Target set was: 6.50 MT

Sugarcane

Actual projection now: 2,494 MT
Target set was: 3,400 MT

Our correspondent seems surprised that India will meet the rice target.
I have been howling for the last two years.
When I was in college in 1966 we had I think two years of drought and India had to import wheat under PL-480 from USA and Australia.
The quality was very poor but we Indians were pleased and blessed those countries especially when the USA converted the loan for the PL-480 into a grant. That was the the time we were told that each Indian, even a new born baby was in debt to the extent of a few thousand rupees.
Then in the 60s, Norman Borlaug, developed some high yielding crops which saved about 450 million people from starvation in India and other poor countries.They called it the Green Revolution.
Our population has now caught up with whatever increase in crop production was made through the Green Revolution.
Now if we are to feed our population we need another Green (or whatever colour you wish to call) revolution.
Instead of that we are reducing the acreage under farming by giving away land for SEZ. Further, as in 1966, there has been failure in the monsoon.
Having received good monsoon rain continuously for the last 7 or 8 years, we thought everything was hunky dory and we could reduce our acreage under farming.
Such short sighted decisions can only be taken by people who are just interested in making quick money. Coming years are to be even worse. As per the law of averages, we should be getting a few years of scanty rain.
Unless we stop madly blindly following China (who have plenty of spare land) and stop acquiring fertile land from farmers for setting up SEZ and other industries, the situation is growing to become grimmer by the years.
Further, we should stop fearing disturbing vote banks and control our population. If we are unable to decrease, at least keep it status quo