Delhi likely to get a hung assembly: Survey

New Delhi, Oct 15 (IANS) Debutant Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is likely to spoil the party for both the Congress and the BJP in the Dec 4 Delhi assembly polls, claimed a survey Tuesday.

According to an opinion poll conducted by ABP News and Nielsen, Arvind Kejriwal's AAP is likely to bag around 18 seats out of the 70 seats with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) likely to emerge as the single largest party with 28 seats.

The Congress which has ruled the national capital for the past three terms, will end up with only 22 seats, said the survey.

Other parties and Independents are likely to manage only two seats, it said.

The BJP would have fared better but for the emergence of AAP, it said.

"If they didn't have AAP as their competitor the BJP would have gained another 15 percent share from the Congress, displacing them as the clear winner," said the survey.

According to the survey, there is a reduction in the loyalist base for both Congress and BJP in the last two months, resulting in a gain for AAP.

According to the survey, around 32 per cent of respondents preferred Arvind Kejriwal as the chief minister of Delhi, followed by equal support for BJP's Vijay Goel and Congress' Sheila Dikshit.

The survey reveals that at an overall level, corruption and price rise are the main issues for change in voting intention from Congress to BJP. The perception about parties differ.

While AAP is seen as a party that can bring down corruption, BJP is seen as a party that can control inflation. The Congress is seen as a party that can maintain law and order.

According to the survey, about 65 percent respondents did not want to give another chance to incumbent Congress while 40 percent of the respondents rated the state government's performance as below average.

The survey was carried out between Oct 9 to 12 with 4,000 respondents.

I totally disagree with the survey.

As per survey carried out by me AAP will get a two-third majority in the coming elections.

I have been phoning up ten randomly selected Delhi mobile nos daily to call up Delhi voters and get their views on the coming elections.

I keep a record of all the numbers called and their reaction/comment and can give the same to anyone interested.

1.Out of 30 calls made in the last 3 days, 19 have pledged their support to AAP.

2.Only one person has said he will not vote.

3.One person would vote for AAP but he was from UP and did not have a voter card.

4.Eight persons could not be contacted because of some reason or the other.

5.One person would have voted for AAP but he had strong objections to Deshraj Raghav being chosen as a candidate as the person says, he is a criminal and also for Arvind's statement of the Batala House episode.

If we assume that even 4 of the 8 persons who could not be reached vote for AAP, we will have 23 votes, which is more than two-third.

I know the sample size is small but when you check whether rice has cooked, you take only one grain of rice to check.

This sample is sufficient to say QED.

The sample size will continue increasing as my ten calls will continue daily and I shall keep all of you informed.