AAP: Spoiler in Congress, BJP broth

New Delhi, Nov 3 (IANS) The debutant Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) appears to have dimmed the prospects of both the Congress, which has been ruling Delhi for the past 15 years, and the opposition BJP which hopes to gain from a strong anti-incumbency factor.

For the first time, the stage seems set for a triangular contest when Delhi's 11.5 million voters excercise their franchise for a new 70-member assembly exactly a month from now.

The Congress had won 43 seats in 2008 against 24 of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The rise of the 11-month-old AAP is attributed to its outreach to slum dwellers and the middle class, groaning under the weight of rising prices and miffed at corruption and rising incidents of crimes against women in the national capital under the rule of a woman chief minister, Sheila Dikshit.

But lack of political experience could, however, puncture the AAP's claims of getting a clear majority.

According to political experts, although the AAP is certainly expected to make a dent in the polls, there is a question mark over how far it will be be able to go.

"The AAP will be kingmaker in Delhi as the middle class wants change and the party has been able to attract their attention," senior journalist Kuldip Nayar told IANS.

Agreed Sanjay Kumar of the CSDS: "The AAP will be a key player."

And what could worsen matters for the BJP, the faction-ridden opposition party, is the fact that it lacks a clear vision and has failed to capitalise on the public anger against the ruling party's failures.

The BJP has so far been unable to project itself as a united force with differences over who would be its chief ministerial candidate spilling over in public.

The party has finally named Harsh Vardhan for the top job in Delhi, but what would be the extent of damage from the camp of his rival Vijay Goel, who has been made to rein in his ambitions, remains to be seen.

According to Sanjay Kumar, the BJP has a golden opportunity to come back to power, but infighting over the chief ministerial candidate could mar its chances.

"People are disenchanted with the Congress," he told IANS.

Voicing a slightly different view, political analyst Parasnath Chaudhary, a retired professor from South Asia Institute at Heidelberg University, said the AAP's entry in the political field will confuse voters.

"The voters in Delhi will certainly be confused this time because earlier there was either the BJP or the Congress, but now the AAP has emerged as an option as well," said Chaudhary.

He said the AAP lacked "political appeal" and it won't be able to do "much harm" to the two bigger parties.

"People are not happy with the Congress in Delhi and may vote for the BJP," Chaudhary told IANS.

And to no one's surprise both the BJP and the Congress dismissed the AAP's claims.

"We don't consider the AAP as a challenge since it is a party with nuisance value. They have just entered the political arena and it will take time for them to make an impact," senior Congress leader and minister Haroon Yusuf said.

The BJP's new poster boy, Harsh Vardhan, also voiced similar feelings.

"The battle (in Delhi) is between the Congress and the BJP only. They (AAP) don't stand a chance... The BJP will get two-thirds majority in Delhi," Harsh Vardhan told IANS.

Parties aside, development issues will also dominate the Delhi poll scene.

The Sheila Dikshit-led Congress is seeking a fourth consecutive term on the basis of achievements like the Delhi Metro, flyovers and regularisation of unauthorised colonies, which have been voting for the Congress.

The BJP and the AAP are raking up issues like high power and water tariff, rampant corruption in civic agencies, lack of safety for women and alleged irregularities in the Commonwealth Games 2010.

And if voted to power, the BJP has promised to reduce electricity charges by 30 percent and provide affordable housing to the poor. (Gaurav Sharma can be contacted at gaurav.s@ians.in; Rahul Vaishnavi can be contacted at rahul.v@ians.in)

Dear Mr. Gaurav Sharma & Rahul Vaishnavi,

If you happen to contact any of the thousands of AAP supporters who have been calling up Delhi voters soliciting their votes in favour of AAP, you will have found out how wrong you are.

AAP is not the spoiler of the broth but is the winner of the broth.

The Congress and the BJP will be left in the lurch like the two cats fighting for roti while the monkey took it away from under their noses.

You have said it will be a triangular contest. I disagree. It is a bipolar contest between the AAP on one side and the combined might of the Congress and BJP on the other side, with the BSP thrown in with them

AAP will not be the the kingmaker but the king himself.

The results of our calls to Delhi voters as on date are given below.

A.Total Called: 53208

B.Not reached/Wrong No :21699

C.Undecided: 6369

D.No: 3379

E.Yes : 21761

F. Valid Votes : 31509 (A-B)

Yes Votes % = E/F * 100 = 70%

No Votes % = D/F*100 = 10%

Undecided Votes % C/F*100 = 20%

Assuming the undecided voters are divided equally between the three political parties, AAP would get 76.66 % votes.

I myself have been calling the Delhi voters.

For every 10 calls I make at least six enthusiastically inform me that they will not only vote for AAP but also get all their friends and relatives to vote for the AAP.

You will see how worried the Congress party is by the following news item

Rashid Alvi says 'opinion polls mislead people

New Delhi, Nov.3 (ANI): Congress leader Rashid Alvi on Sunday said that his party has only supported the decision of the Election Commission (EC) to restrict opinion polls, and added that opinion polls create delusion and misleads people.

"Restriction of opinion poll is a decision of the Election Commission (EC), and we have only supported it. Opinion polls show varied results and it creates delusion and misleads people. All the parties should come together and look into this matter," he said.

The Congress Party has written to the Election Commission (EC) to restrict opinion polls ahead of the elections.

The legal department of the Congress Party stated that opinion polls can be misused, and they are not scientific or credible.

The Congress, however, shifted from its earlier stand, where it dismissed the proposal of the Election Commission to ban opinion polls.

The opinion polls have been projecting poor show of the Congress in some states where Assembly Elections are scheduled to take place. (ANI)